Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dark Horseloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Rabbitwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dark Horse
Clockwerkoften banned
sheep · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Hoodwink
sheep · 3 games
Lion
sheep · 3 games
Techies
sheep · 3 games
Bane
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 2 games
Grimstroke
sheep · 2 games
Evil Rabbit
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 1 game
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Rubick
QYQX · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
421 picks · 608 bans
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 383 bans
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 140 bans
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 576 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 151 bans
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 656 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 339 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
Dark Horse 54%Evil Rabbit 46%
The model gave 54% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 45:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinksheep
LinaButterflyEffect
Ogre MagiUndyne_
Razorxiaoyu154
59% · 23 games
DisruptorQYQX
Game 2prediction missed14:26
Dark Horse 50%Evil Rabbit 50%
The model gave 50% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ogre MagiUndyne_
WindrangerButterflyEffect
Iosheep
Centaur Warrunnerxiaoyu154
63% · 15 games
DisruptorQYQX
Game 3prediction missed37:25
Dark Horse 56%Evil Rabbit 44%
The model gave 56% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 49:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinksheep
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Elder TitanUndyne_
Slardarxiaoyu154
43% · 50 games
PhoenixQYQX
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 57%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3