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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Darleng

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kuku · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jing · 2 games
0%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 16 games
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 353 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 561 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 517 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
330 picks · 258 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 628 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
312 picks · 186 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
298 picks · 291 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Darleng 42%Talon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 58:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAbat
50% · 148 games55% · 93 games
RazorAkashi
Razor
Windranger
WindrangerKuku
47% · 110 games57% · 104 games
Keeper of the LightCHYuan
Keeper of the Light
Leshrac
LeshracYowe
45% · 64 games44% · 93 games
Dragon KnightWs
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJing
53% · 100 games51% · 87 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
47% · 45 games
Ancient ApparitionPonyo
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct16:39
Darleng 43%Talon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAbat
47% · 92 games56% · 55 games
LifestealerAkashi
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckYowe
56% · 124 games48% · 143 games
DoomWs
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterKuku
45% · 87 games49% · 84 games
KunkkaCHYuan
Kunkka
Leshrac
LeshracJing
64% · 80 games38% · 75 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
47% · 26 games
BanePonyo
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 64%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2