BETBOOM Streamers Battle 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Daxak Teamwin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
gpK~ Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Daxak Team
Earthshaker
Unique · 4 games
Grimstroke
Groom · 4 games
Witch Doctor
r4dom1r · 4 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Unique · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ya sulen · 3 games
Hoodwink
Groom · 3 games
Jakiro
r4dom1r · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
eccobladee2k · 3 games
gpK~ Team
Earthshaker
kiyotaka · 2 games
Ancient Apparition
Lukawa · 1 game
Disruptor
Lukawa · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
gpK~ · 1 game
Juggernaut
gpK~ · 1 game
Largooften banned
Shachlo · 1 game
Lion
Stint · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Shachlo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
489 picks · 295 bans
Dark Willow
373 picks · 166 bans
Mirana
363 picks · 161 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 482 bans
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 308 bans
Winter Wyvern
294 picks · 274 bans
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 476 bans
Undying
271 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Daxak Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Daxak Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
Daxak Team 53%gpK~ Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 23:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackDaxak
Vengeful Spiritkiyotaka
Ioeccobladee2k
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
Dragon Knightya sulen
LunagpK~
Ancient ApparitionWeeeNy
ZeusLukawa
Dark WillowGroom
TuskZloba
Game 2prediction missed57:46
Daxak Team 56%gpK~ Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by gpK~ Team in 1:20:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingeccobladee2k
Broodmotherkiyotaka
DawnbreakerDaxak
SvengpK~
Leshracya sulen
DoomShachlo
RubickGroom
Winter WyvernZloba
Witch DoctorWeeeNy
LionLukawa
Game 3prediction correct30:14
Daxak Team 56%gpK~ Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenDaxak
TinygpK~
Lifestealereccobladee2k
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
Linaya sulen
KunkkaShachlo
RingmasterGroom
MiranaLukawa
Crystal MaidenWeeeNy
ClockwerkZloba
Model check result
Model favoriteDaxak Team · 58%
Series resultDaxak Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3