Чемпионат России 2024 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Derzhawinwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No_Hoodwinkloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Derzhawin
No games played over 6 months.
No_Hoodwink
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
421 picks · 610 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 389 bans
Crystal Maiden
364 picks · 142 bans
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 465 bans
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
Pangolier
316 picks · 580 bans
Rubick
314 picks · 163 bans
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 629 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Derzhawin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% No_Hoodwink
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Derzhawin 40%No_Hoodwink 60%
The model gave 60% on No_Hoodwink — the game was taken by No_Hoodwink.
Game 2prediction missed
Derzhawin 40%No_Hoodwink 60%
The model gave 60% on No_Hoodwink — the game was taken by Derzhawin.
Game 3prediction missed
Derzhawin 40%No_Hoodwink 60%
The model gave 60% on No_Hoodwink — the game was taken by Derzhawin.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo_Hoodwink · 60%
Series resultDerzhawin 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3