Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionDIDestroy Itemsloss 0:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
44u4uwarawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Destroy Items
No games played over 6 months.
4u4uwara
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
420 picks · 999 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 941 bans
Doom
391 picks · 605 bans
Undying
386 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Destroy Items
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Destroy Items
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Destroy Items 58%4u4uwara 42%
The model gave 58% on Destroy Items — the game was taken by 4u4uwara.
Model check result
Model favoriteDestroy Items · 58%
Series result4u4uwara 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1