i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionDGDigital Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Digital Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 947 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 574 bans
Mars
333 picks · 611 bans
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 264 bans
Death Prophet
295 picks · 585 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
240 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Digital Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 56%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictioncorrect