CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
Jakiro
aik · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 2 games
JustBetter
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 14 games
Batridersignature
Astral · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Windrangeroften banned
Focus · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Grimstroke
Astral · 8 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Astral · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
413 picks · 426 bans
Rubick
412 picks · 306 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 900 bans
Weaver
395 picks · 815 bans
Phoenix
357 picks · 710 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 537 bans
Clockwerk
346 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
DMS 65%JustBetter 35%
The model gave 65% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Dark Seerkrylat
Troll Warlordrincyq
RazorPanda
Pangoliermellojul
Faceless VoidFocus
Jakiroaik
PhoenixLeBronDota
Batriderprblms
DisruptorSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct31:7
DMS 65%JustBetter 35%
The model gave 65% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterDaxak
Troll WarlordFocus
Razormellojul
Pangolierkrylat
Terrorbladerincyq
Earth SpiritPanda
Windrangerprblms
RubickLeBronDota
Svenaik
PhoenixSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 76%
Series resultDMS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2