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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
DMSloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Kalmychataloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Kaori · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 1 game
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Daxak · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Xakoda · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Xakoda · 1 game
0%

Kalmychata

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 5 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 4 games
25%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 729 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
342 picks · 286 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
335 picks · 652 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
334 picks · 222 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 377 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
303 picks · 532 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 343 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:21
DMS 51%Kalmychata 49%
The model gave 51% on DMS — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
50% · 175 games54% · 118 games
Troll WarlordRetsu
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
56% · 314 games55% · 49 games
Sand KingActor
Sand King
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
41% · 110 games59% · 206 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfireprblms
48% · 140 games44% · 312 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
38% · 80 games55% · 134 games
Enchantressantoha
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed27:4
DMS 49%Kalmychata 51%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by DMS in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
43% · 86 games53% · 52 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Visage
VisageDaxak
48% · 42 games49% · 104 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal Beastmellojul
60% · 309 games48% · 193 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
47% · 91 game53% · 112 games
Enchantressantoha
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageprblms
52% · 101 game47% · 168 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2