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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daxak · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Hduo · 15 games
53%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 13 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 12 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 10 games
40%

Passion UA

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 16 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 666 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 468 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
333 picks · 177 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 412 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
302 picks · 312 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% DMS
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total50% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
DMS 52%Passion UA 48%
The model gave 52% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNefrit
48% · 205 games52% · 378 games
Dragon Knightyowaai
Dragon Knight
Alchemist
AlchemistShigetsu
56% · 255 games52% · 254 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
46% · 304 games47% · 269 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskHduo
47% · 326 games57% · 299 games
LionFernans
Lion
Batrider
Batriderprblms
45% · 381 game49% · 271 game
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed29:17
DMS 50%Passion UA 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by DMS in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShigetsu
46% · 144 games49% · 236 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
52% · 283 games48% · 237 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
47% · 115 games54% · 143 games
Earth Spiritniche
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressHduo
48% · 395 games54% · 301 game
Shadow DemonFernans
Shadow Demon
Lion
Lionprblms
51% · 339 games51% · 359 games
Hoodwinkflacko
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 50%
Series resultDMS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2