BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionDDongloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HSHong shi zhang zuiwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dong
No games played over 6 months.
Hong shi zhang zui
Snapfiresignature
TK · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
Hoodwink
TK · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 4 games
Bane
Undyne_ · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
345 picks · 319 bans
Puck
327 picks · 826 bans
Snapfire
298 picks · 149 bans
Pugna
287 picks · 318 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 773 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 245 bans
Warlock
269 picks · 123 bans
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:28
Dong 19%Hong shi zhang zui 81%
The model gave 81% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 52:11.
Game 2prediction correct13:43
Dong 19%Hong shi zhang zui 81%
The model gave 81% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 26:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 81%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2