EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Dota Teamwin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dota Team
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
372 picks · 770 bans
Void Spirit
346 picks · 456 bans
Mars
296 picks · 517 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
262 picks · 404 bans
Rubick
241 picks · 145 bans
Keeper of the Light
232 picks · 484 bans
Wraith King
227 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Dota Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:30
Dota Team 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 42:23.
Game 2prediction missed8:22
Dota Team 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Dota Team in 27:24.
Game 3prediction missed23:34
Dota Team 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Dota Team in 50:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 57%
Series resultDota Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3