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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DMSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 13 games
8%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 13 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 9 games
22%
Mirana
Mirana
armageddon · 8 games
50%

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 11 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
prblms · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 294 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 438 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
325 picks · 252 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 539 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
293 picks · 276 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 469 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 800 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 409 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 51%
Hero pool strength58% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total67% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:29
Dragon Esports 43%DMS 57%
The model gave 57% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlil pleb
44% · 142 games49% · 268 games
LunaShigetsu
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
51% · 243 games52% · 143 games
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaInfernal
52% · 72 games59% · 96 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
44% · 174 games45% · 183 games
Miranaprblms
Mirana
Omniknight
OmniknightMary_y
57% · 72 games43% · 13 games
Ogre MagiHduo
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct17:34
Dragon Esports 42%DMS 58%
The model gave 58% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverlil pleb
58% · 202 games48% · 201 game
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
58% · 153 games56% · 42 games
DazzleDaxak
Dazzle
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
47% · 124 games51% · 214 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightxsvampire
50% · 105 games46% · 214 games
EnchantressHduo
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
47% · 282 games42% · 195 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 67%
Series resultDMS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2