BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DKDrago kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
Drago kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
370 picks · 354 bans
Hoodwink
360 picks · 404 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 257 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 523 bans
Sven
296 picks · 306 bans
Phoenix
287 picks · 490 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 348 bans
Snapfire
276 picks · 252 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Drago kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Drago kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:35
Dragon Esports 45%Drago kings 55%
The model gave 55% on Drago kings — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 29:25.
Game 2prediction missed24:6
Dragon Esports 45%Drago kings 55%
The model gave 55% on Drago kings — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 18:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrago kings · 55%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2