European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 27 games
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 20 games
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
Phoenix
Mary_y · 13 games
Nemiga Gaming
Rubick
jesv · 17 games
Snapfire
Shishak · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 16 games
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 14 games
Hoodwink
Shishak · 13 games
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
496 picks · 677 bans
Clockwerk
423 picks · 475 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 543 bans
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 430 bans
Enchantress
325 picks · 654 bans
Batrider
313 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 26%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total63% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
Dragon Esports 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinglil pleb
DawnbreakerMiyaoo
TinyhAze
Storm Spiritряф^^
MarsInfernal
Venomancerantoha
Ogre MagiMary_y
LionShishak
Winter Wyvernxsvampire
Game 2prediction correct0:1
Dragon Esports 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 5:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 63%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2