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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 12 games
8%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 9 games
22%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
armageddon · 8 games
50%

Quantum Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Somnia · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bashka · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 293 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 437 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
326 picks · 252 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 537 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 469 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
293 picks · 278 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 800 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 410 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
Dragon Esports 55%Quantum Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
44% · 82 games55% · 246 games
Lunabashka
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
47% · 57 games51% · 197 games
Storm SpiritRvze
Storm Spirit
Puck
Puckdualrazee
43% · 162 games54% · 40 games
Night Stalkerkolya_kaBAN68
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
48% · 163 games53% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightSomnia
Keeper of the Light
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
53% · 133 games38% · 4 games
Ogre MagiFezor
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed52:69
Dragon Esports 54%Quantum Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 1:44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglil pleb
50% · 261 game52% · 226 games
Lunabashka
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
48% · 309 games52% · 171 game
Dark WillowSomnia
Dark Willow
Visage
VisageInfernal
50% · 54 games56% · 104 games
MagnusRvze
Magnus
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxsvampire
43% · 92 games44% · 27 games
Axekolya_kaBAN68
Axe
Oracle
OracleMary_y
52% · 39 games51% · 227 games
PhoenixFezor
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct35:11
Dragon Esports 56%Quantum Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 29:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlil pleb
48% · 304 games52% · 256 games
Lunabashka
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
49% · 84 games49% · 240 games
Timbersawkolya_kaBAN68
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
50% · 409 games45% · 101 game
Void SpiritRvze
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
57% · 250 games45% · 294 games
RubickSomnia
Rubick
Omniknight
OmniknightMary_y
53% · 81 game50% · 237 games
PhoenixFezor
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 61%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3