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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 23 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 23 games
35%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 17 games
41%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 11 games
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 489 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 529 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 182 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
340 picks · 451 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 593 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 485 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
300 picks · 631 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:34
Dragon Esports 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 45:29.
Game 2prediction correct45:34
Dragon Esports 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 52:24.
Game 3prediction correct35:25
Dragon Esports 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3