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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO5
result vs prediction
Dudley boysloss 0:3
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Falconswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dudley boys

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
9Class · 5 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Xakoda · 4 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuma · 4 games
100%
Lion
Lion
9Class · 4 games
75%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
100%

Team Falcons

Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
78%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 8 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 6 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
ATF · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
279 picks · 384 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
243 picks · 114 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
223 picks · 487 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
215 picks · 318 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 306 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 415 bans
58%
Kunkka
Kunkka
189 picks · 479 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
187 picks · 354 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 78%
Hero pool strength50% Dudley boys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Dudley boys 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuma
46% · 46 games53% · 67 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAdzantick
52% · 202 games51% · 129 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
45% · 148 games61% · 23 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Lich
LichXakoda
39% · 80 games53% · 102 games
PugnaCr1t-
Pugna
Lion
Lion9Class
47% · 52 games56% · 207 games
ClockwerkFishman
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct7:41
Dudley boys 40%Team Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAdzantick
45% · 111 games52% · 42 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuma
40% · 69 games53% · 101 game
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Wraith King
Wraith KingMinD_ContRoL
58% · 44 games51% · 238 games
TuskMalr1ne
Tusk
Marci
Marci9Class
49% · 92 games58% · 22 games
ChenFishman
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerXakoda
48% · 114 games49% · 27 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Game 3prediction correct13:33
Dudley boys 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuma
52% · 131 game43% · 63 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Mars
MarsAdzantick
50% · 109 games52% · 227 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMinD_ContRoL
46% · 35 games46% · 58 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet9Class
57% · 271 game54% · 202 games
Treant ProtectorFishman
Treant Protector
Lion
LionXakoda
48% · 87 games46% · 83 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3