EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs predictionDDYNASTYwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DYNASTY
Mirana
asdekor_r · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Baneoften banned
mrls · 2 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 2 games
Iooften banned
bottega · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
mrls · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
bottega · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Mirele · 2 games
PuckChamp
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 11 games
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 10 games
Linaoften banned
спортик · 9 games
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 9 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
483 picks · 330 bans
Bane
341 picks · 460 bans
Clockwerk
329 picks · 499 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 501 bans
Shadow Fiend
308 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
279 picks · 310 bans
Windranger
265 picks · 190 bans
Centaur Warrunner
255 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% DYNASTY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% DYNASTY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:5
DYNASTY 57%PuckChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on DYNASTY — the game was taken by DYNASTY in 18:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linabottega
Beastmasterkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
LifestealerYuragi
SlardarMirele
Earth Spiritспортик
Miranaasdekor_r
HoodwinkGothic-
Clockwerkmrls
Winter WyvernHyugadoto
Game 2prediction correct34:18
DYNASTY 56%PuckChamp 44%
The model gave 56% on DYNASTY — the game was taken by DYNASTY in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerbottega
Linaспортик
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
LifestealerYuragi
Earth SpiritMirele
Slardarkrol9ash
Dazzleasdekor_r
MiranaGothic-
Clockwerkmrls
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
Model check result
Model favoriteDYNASTY · 60%
Series resultDYNASTY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2