FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Elephantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 9 games
Tusk
xNova · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Lion
Frisk · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Frisk · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Frisk · 4 games
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
392 picks · 865 bans
Void Spirit
364 picks · 520 bans
Mars
317 picks · 566 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 501 bans
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 239 bans
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
Wraith King
237 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:9
EHOME 55%Elephant 45%
The model gave 55% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 31:39.
Game 2prediction correct33:10
EHOME 55%Elephant 45%
The model gave 55% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 26:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 55%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2