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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Frisk · 11 games
55%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 8 games
88%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Frisk · 8 games
38%

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 948 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 699 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 549 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
317 picks · 319 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
284 picks · 160 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 280 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
EHOME 40%Invictus Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 35:14.
Game 2prediction missed27:15
EHOME 40%Invictus Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 26:57.
Game 3prediction missed22:5
EHOME 40%Invictus Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 23:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 60%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3