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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Frisk · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 3 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 3 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
xNova · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 2 games
0%

LGD Gaming

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
80%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
XinQ · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 739 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
331 picks · 431 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
283 picks · 501 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 219 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
242 picks · 374 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
236 picks · 136 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
222 picks · 462 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 670 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
EHOME 41%LGD Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerChalice
27% · 16 games54% · 43 games
Wraith KingAme
Wraith King
Ursa
UrsaXm
43% · 59 games53% · 99 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFrisk
54% · 97 games51% · 15 games
ViperFaith_bian
Viper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkxNova
42% · 44 games59% · 22 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
57% · 37 games
Oracley`
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct15:29
EHOME 43%LGD Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterChalice
55% · 71 game47% · 31 game
LycanAme
Lycan
Mars
MarsXm
57% · 97 games47% · 116 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFrisk
52% · 97 games44% · 44 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
60% · 18 games37% · 57 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
52% · 35 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 61%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2