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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 12 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 10 games
20%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Echo · 9 games
33%
Bane
Bane
zzq · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 7 games
43%

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Victoria · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Victoria · 7 games
43%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Victoria · 7 games
14%
Razor
Razorsignature
Xm · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
592 picks · 448 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 627 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 861 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 497 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
359 picks · 238 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 599 bans
46%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
297 picks · 649 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:24
EHOME 48%Vici Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Snipershiro
50% · 22 games55% · 35 games
Bristlebackpoyoyo
Bristleback
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
47% · 151 game46% · 172 games
PuckXm
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
62% · 117 games49% · 127 games
RazorYang
Razor
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEcho
51% · 55 games42% · 109 games
DawnbreakerYds
Dawnbreaker
Marci
Marcizzq
50% · 135 games51% · 37 games
WarlockFenrir
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct40:30
EHOME 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 45:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEcho
48% · 175 games48% · 139 games
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightshiro
53% · 107 games56% · 183 games
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Enigma
Enigmazeal
52% · 46 games54% · 66 games
BrewmasterYang
Brewmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingpLAnet
52% · 173 games45% · 114 games
Winter WyvernFenrir
Winter Wyvern
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzzq
40% · 121 game54% · 120 games
Nyx AssassinYds
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct22:8
EHOME 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautshiro
47% · 74 games52% · 129 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Lina
LinaEcho
52% · 234 games64% · 41 game
Spectrepoyoyo
Spectre
Visage
Visagezeal
54% · 56 games58% · 131 game
Death ProphetYang
Death Prophet
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzzq
36% · 138 games50% · 185 games
SnapfireFenrir
Snapfire
Marci
MarcipLAnet
40% · 69 games54% · 85 games
Nyx AssassinYds
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 52%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3