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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 10 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
7e · 7 games
29%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
zzq · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 7 games
43%

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 11 games
91%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 11 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
73%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 10 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 10 games
70%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 546 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
327 picks · 408 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
313 picks · 575 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 332 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
295 picks · 460 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 376 bans
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
269 picks · 493 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 80%
Hero pool strength63% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:20
EHOME 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
47% · 132 games42% · 107 games
Morphlinglou
Morphling
Razor
RazorEcho
47% · 159 games46% · 152 games
Death ProphetPaparazi
Death Prophet
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
58% · 141 game47% · 81 game
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
51% · 64 games58% · 167 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Phoenix
Phoenixzzq
53% · 134 games48% · 123 games
AbaddonDy
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed34:21
EHOME 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
53% · 279 games54% · 239 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
55% · 242 games48% · 221 game
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
45% · 278 games55% · 119 games
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
Centaur Warrunner
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzeal
48% · 199 games43% · 222 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Pugna
Pugnazzq
44% · 51 game55% · 248 games
BaneDy
Bane
Game 3prediction correct7:23
EHOME 33%Xtreme Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingshiro
49% · 254 games58% · 226 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzeal
53% · 211 games56% · 11 games
HuskarPaparazi
Huskar
Razor
RazorEcho
44% · 233 games49% · 404 games
MarsELeVeN
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
46% · 130 games52% · 189 games
WeaverPyw
Weaver
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magizzq
43% · 175 games52% · 173 games
AbaddonDy
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 76%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3