i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
413 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 539 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 701 bans
Mars
327 picks · 546 bans
Grimstroke
311 picks · 308 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 218 bans
Lion
281 picks · 155 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Elephant 34%Invictus Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 29:52.
Game 2prediction correct4:24
Elephant 34%Invictus Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 26:33.
Game 3prediction correct23:12
Elephant 34%Invictus Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 45:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 66%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3