Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 15 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 14 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 12 games
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
829 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
601 picks · 413 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 542 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 418 bans
Nature's Prophet
489 picks · 792 bans
Death Prophet
439 picks · 915 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 306 bans
Clockwerk
387 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 68%
Hero pool strength61% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:33
Entity 69%PSG Quest 31%
The model gave 69% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 51:32.
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Entity 69%PSG Quest 31%
The model gave 69% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 69%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2