The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team SMGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
Mirana
Poloson · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
MidOne · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jaunuel · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
262 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
206 picks · 430 bans
Vengeful Spirit
203 picks · 265 bans
Sven
184 picks · 258 bans
Beastmaster
174 picks · 368 bans
Skywrath Mage
172 picks · 104 bans
Dark Seer
171 picks · 320 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
Entity 45%Team SMG 55%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 47:03.
Game 2prediction correct8:46
Entity 45%Team SMG 55%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 35:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 55%
Accuracy by game2 of 2