PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Winter Wyvern
Miposhka · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
680 picks · 486 bans
Puck
476 picks · 976 bans
Dawnbreaker
389 picks · 493 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 191 bans
Marci
353 picks · 672 bans
Mars
333 picks · 551 bans
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 420 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 51%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:14
Entity 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:15.
Game 2prediction missed31:8
Entity 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2