DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 30 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
Pipsqueak+4
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 17 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 16 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 12 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 10 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
551 picks · 280 bans
Disruptor
495 picks · 505 bans
Puck
371 picks · 1027 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
Hoodwink
323 picks · 158 bans
Mars
323 picks · 540 bans
Warlock
323 picks · 150 bans
Earthshaker
310 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
eSpoiled 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 24:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenssnovv1
MarsNande
Dragon KnightDifference
BrewmasterPalantimos
Windrangermrls
Puckxn丶e
Jakiroasdekor_r
HuskarEkki
55% · 241 game
WarlockKidaro
Game 2prediction missed18:26
eSpoiled 58%Pipsqueak+4 42%
The model gave 58% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautssnovv1
MorphlingNande
Queen of PainDifference
Nature's Prophetxn丶e
Warlockasdekor_r
MarsPalantimos
Hoodwinkmrls
JakiroKidaro
50% · 220 games
TuskEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 64%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2