DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BBarrancoBarwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 9 games
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 6 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
BarrancoBar
Grimstroke
Accel · 2 games
Doomoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Silencer
Accel · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
639 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
515 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
490 picks · 403 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
415 picks · 381 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1089 bans
Puck
388 picks · 826 bans
Mars
382 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% BarrancoBar
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:40
Estar Backs 63%BarrancoBar 37%
The model gave 63% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by BarrancoBar in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinypayk
Anti-MagebsK7-
BatriderYadomi
VenomancerAccel
Game 2prediction correct41:18
Estar Backs 61%BarrancoBar 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinypayk
Monkey KingbsK7-
VenomancerYadomi
ChenAccel
Game 3prediction missed25:49
Estar Backs 61%BarrancoBar 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by BarrancoBar in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapayk
DoombsK7-
Treant ProtectorYadomi
BaneAccel
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 73%
Series resultBarrancoBar 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3