Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Midas Clubloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
Techies
Michael · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
Midas Club
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
FCR · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Techies
Hyko · 2 games
Zeusoften banned
4dr · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Wij · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 560 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
Mars
342 picks · 515 bans
Techies
327 picks · 256 bans
Batrider
317 picks · 623 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
Tiny
297 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Estar Backs 72%Midas Club 28%
The model gave 72% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Game 2prediction correct
Estar Backs 72%Midas Club 28%
The model gave 72% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 72%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2