?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Midas Clubwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Michael · 7 games
71%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wij · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
4dr · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Costabile · 3 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 724 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 678 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
417 picks · 335 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 524 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 886 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 180 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
379 picks · 172 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:34
Estar Backs 60%Midas Club 40%
The model gave 60% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Midas Club in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMnz
54% · 74 games45% · 135 games
Death Prophet4dr
Death Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawSacred
45% · 120 games49% · 140 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
45% · 148 games50% · 36 games
Night StalkerFCR
Night Stalker
Batrider
BatriderMichael
55% · 146 games54% · 99 games
ChenHyko
Chen
Enchantress
EnchantressYor
51% · 175 games53% · 253 games
DisruptorWij
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed27:41
Estar Backs 59%Midas Club 41%
The model gave 59% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Midas Club in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
47% · 79 games53% · 94 games
BrewmasterFCR
Brewmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSacred
53% · 167 games50% · 202 games
TerrorbladeCostabile
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDarkMago
46% · 199 games52% · 236 games
Primal Beast4dr
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskMichael
51% · 159 games54% · 169 games
PugnaHyko
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressYor
47% · 304 games48% · 207 games
DisruptorWij
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 68%
Series resultMidas Club 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2