The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Qhaliloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 7 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Mnz · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Michael · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Qhali
Earth Spirit
DaaD- · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Windrangeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 749 bans
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 640 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 759 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 1043 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 742 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Estar Backs 69%Qhali 31%
The model gave 69% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Qhali.
Game 2prediction correct
Estar Backs 69%Qhali 31%
The model gave 69% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Game 3prediction correct
Estar Backs 69%Qhali 31%
The model gave 69% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 69%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3