Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 1:3series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Team Nemesiswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 10 games
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
Tinysignature
payk · 8 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 4 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
Team Nemesis
Tinysignature
Mac · 22 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Windranger
Q · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 17 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
602 picks · 374 bans
Rubick
497 picks · 270 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 580 bans
Tiny
463 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
404 picks · 564 bans
Puck
342 picks · 928 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 861 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Estar Backs 48%Team Nemesis 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoParker
Queen of Pain4nalog
Underlordpayk
Doomrubikon155
BaneYadomi
PangolierJabz
59% · 50 games
Treant ProtectorYamSun
47% · 105 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Game 2prediction missed28:12
Estar Backs 49%Team Nemesis 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 41:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
Tinyrubikon155
Slardarpayk
Ember Spirit4nalog
Treant ProtectorYadomi
PangolierJabz
69% · 24 games
Winter WyvernYamSun
48% · 75 games
LionLelis
Game 3prediction correct21:48
Estar Backs 48%Team Nemesis 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 58:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingParker
Terrorbladerubikon155
Tinypayk
Snapfire4nalog
TechiesYadomi
TimbersawJabz
42% · 53 games
LichYamSun
51% · 265 games
TuskLelis
Game 4prediction correct7:44
Estar Backs 48%Team Nemesis 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerParker
Drow Rangerrubikon155
Timbersawpayk
Queen of Pain4nalog
ClockwerkYadomi
SlardarJabz
50% · 242 games
HoodwinkLelis
54% · 104 games
BaneYamSun
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 50%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4