The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Lion
YamSun · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 5 games
Mirana
FrancisLee · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
bumble bEE's
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
Witch Doctor
ppd · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
ppd · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
453 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
Mars
370 picks · 582 bans
Puck
363 picks · 869 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 302 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 240 bans
Ancient Apparition
299 picks · 419 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% bumble bEE's
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:15
Eternity 42%bumble bEE's 58%
The model gave 58% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 1:03:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidYamSun
RazorEternaLEnVy
MiranaFrancisLee
Templar AssassinRyoya
Ancient ApparitionJubei
BeastmasterKingrd
56% · 36 games
Winter WyvernMoo
47% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinZfreeK
Game 2prediction missed46:31
Eternity 43%bumble bEE's 57%
The model gave 57% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 56:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerYamSun
LeshracKingrd
MiranaFrancisLee
RazorEternaLEnVy
Ancient ApparitionJubei
Ember SpiritRyoya
48% · 20 games
Treant ProtectorMoo
50% · 92 games
Nyx AssassinZfreeK
Model check result
Model favoritebumble bEE's · 65%
Series resultEternity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2