Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Euronics Gamingwin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monaspaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Euronics Gaming
Spirit Breaker
Qupe · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Rubick
Qupe · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
265 picks · 338 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 387 bans
Monkey King
247 picks · 586 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 251 bans
Lion
224 picks · 104 bans
Lina
221 picks · 460 bans
Pangolier
219 picks · 271 bans
Bane
214 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Euronics Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:47
Euronics Gaming 41%Monaspa 59%
The model gave 59% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 36:03.
Game 2prediction missed51:39
Euronics Gaming 41%Monaspa 59%
The model gave 59% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Euronics Gaming in 48:28.
Game 3prediction missed44:17
Euronics Gaming 41%Monaspa 59%
The model gave 59% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Euronics Gaming in 32:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 59%
Series resultEuronics Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3