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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
9Pandasloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 25 games
32%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Matthew · 24 games
42%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Matthew · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
42%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
76%

9Pandas

Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 42 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 40 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 32 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 31 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 25 games
48%
Techies
Techies
Antares · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
209 picks · 433 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
205 picks · 267 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
186 picks · 259 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 369 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
173 picks · 106 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 321 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total62% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:18
Evil Geniuses 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPakazs
51% · 74 games50% · 68 games
SvenRAMZES666
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaChris Luck
41% · 63 games54% · 62 games
DawnbreakerMieRo
Dawnbreaker
Dazzle
DazzleWisper
61% · 16 games53% · 68 games
Earth Spiritkiyotaka
Earth Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
48% · 29 games66% · 16 games
MuertaAntares
Muerta
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanda
50% · 79 games45% · 47 games
EnigmaSolo
Enigma
Game 2prediction correct35:46
Evil Geniuses 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 52:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
50% · 52 games53% · 48 games
Earthshakerkiyotaka
Earthshaker
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
44% · 29 games54% · 93 games
Primal BeastMieRo
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChris Luck
47% · 60 games37% · 56 games
Templar AssassinRAMZES666
Templar Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
46% · 123 games59% · 91 game
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanda
54% · 55 games53% · 31 game
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2