?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 25 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 22 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 20 games
75%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 16 games
81%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 36 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 24 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
65%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 20 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
987 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 408 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 410 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1211 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:19
Evil Geniuses 44%Gaimin Gladiators 56%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 18:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgePakazs
50% · 156 games58% · 237 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordWisper
43% · 74 games50% · 226 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChris Luck
40% · 97 gameslittle data
Muertadyrachyo
Muerta
Disruptor
DisruptorMatthew
52% · 347 games55% · 76 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
47% · 240 games53% · 375 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed34:4
Evil Geniuses 46%Gaimin Gladiators 54%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 22:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerPakazs
55% · 96 games48% · 162 games
DoomAce
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
47% · 68 games42% · 82 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Leshrac
LeshracChris Luck
56% · 224 games49% · 79 games
RikiQuinn
Riki
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
56% · 72 games40% · 409 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
55% · 339 games53% · 67 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2