The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 10 games
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 394 bans
Marci
448 picks · 683 bans
Death Prophet
301 picks · 464 bans
Puck
287 picks · 695 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 399 bans
Undying
272 picks · 480 bans
Batrider
251 picks · 860 bans
Chen
250 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:8
Evil Geniuses 67%Hokori 33%
The model gave 67% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Hokori in 28:03.
Game 2prediction missed7:35
Evil Geniuses 67%Hokori 33%
The model gave 67% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Hokori in 27:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 67%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2