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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 20 games
65%

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Kiri · 18 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Kiri · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 593 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 487 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1076 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 765 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 1009 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 201 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
373 picks · 353 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
372 picks · 539 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total92% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:14
Evil Geniuses 79%Infinity Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
50% · 245 games48% · 168 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
54% · 338 games50% · 57 games
WindrangerAdrx
Windranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
45% · 125 games53% · 159 games
MiranaMr.Jeans
Mirana
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
55% · 73 games45% · 283 games
RubickKiri
Rubick
Oracle
OraclePanda
47% · 48 games54% · 162 games
ClockwerkPrada
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct18:27
Evil Geniuses 78%Infinity Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidPakazs
52% · 30 games53% · 54 games
BloodseekerAdrx
Bloodseeker
Magnus
MagnusWisper
45% · 67 games57% · 133 games
BatriderMr.Jeans
Batrider
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
54% · 106 games49% · 46 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Clinkz
ClinkzMatthew
55% · 26 games41% · 79 games
Skywrath MageKiri
Skywrath Mage
Techies
TechiesPanda
50% · 104 games45% · 21 game
OraclePrada
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 92%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2