?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 25 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 24 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 22 games
68%

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 22 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
729 picks · 542 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
600 picks · 517 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1097 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
558 picks · 1253 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
524 picks · 581 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
473 picks · 940 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1081 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
454 picks · 652 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total71% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:22
Evil Geniuses 61%Team Aster 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaPakazs
44% · 128 games54% · 47 games
Anti-MageMonet
Anti-Mage
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
53% · 63 games46% · 155 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderChris Luck
45% · 49 games54% · 54 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Oracle
OraclePanda
58% · 69 games55% · 137 games
TechiesBoBoKa
Techies
Monkey King
Monkey KingMatthew
49% · 164 games44% · 80 games
LichFantasy
Lich
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Evil Geniuses 62%Team Aster 38%
The model gave 62% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
53% · 128 games40% · 103 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Broodmother
BroodmotherChris Luck
56% · 106 games50% · 129 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
49% · 133 games44% · 201 game
MarsXxs
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
55% · 200 games52% · 152 games
TechiesFantasy
Techies
Undying
UndyingPanda
53% · 185 games49% · 167 games
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct22:14
Evil Geniuses 60%Team Aster 40%
The model gave 60% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
52% · 265 games46% · 215 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
54% · 281 game54% · 104 games
BloodseekerMonet
Bloodseeker
Snapfire
SnapfireChris Luck
48% · 417 games46% · 64 games
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Lion
LionMatthew
45% · 51 game49% · 250 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanda
51% · 65 games52% · 446 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 71%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3