Evil Rabbit vs Ardour — prediction ELS-ЗК 2 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Evil Rabbitwin 2:0

series probability

61%39%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Ardourloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

No games played over 6 months.

Ardour

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

417 picks · 616 bans

50%

Gyrocopter

370 picks · 388 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

360 picks · 469 bans

55%

Crystal Maiden

357 picks · 148 bans

53%

Pangolier

320 picks · 579 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

317 picks · 670 bans

50%

Rubick

315 picks · 151 bans

51%

Batrider

313 picks · 444 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Evil Rabbit

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total61% Evil Rabbit

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct30:30

Evil Rabbit 54%Ardour 46%

The model gave 54% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 38:57.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo