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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spiky Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
20%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
QYQX · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
QYQX · 3 games
33%

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hara · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 3 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Manic · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 458 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 263 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 446 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 475 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
Evil Rabbit 56%Spiky Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
41% · 204 games56% · 89 games
AlchemistManic
Alchemist
Mars
MarsIrving
55% · 214 games50% · 267 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenQYQX
56% · 291 game37% · 39 games
Queen of PainGaN-
Queen of Pain
53% · 196 games
EnchantressHara
Enchantress
48% · 118 games
Dark WillowTK
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed11:26
Evil Rabbit 55%Spiky Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
38% · 42 games47% · 47 games
MuertaManic
Muerta
Pangolier
PangolierIrving
50% · 260 games50% · 105 games
Kunkka生死
Kunkka
Omniknight
OmniknightQYQX
54% · 45 games65% · 81 game
Storm SpiritGaN-
Storm Spirit
57% · 11 games
TinkerTK
Tinker
46% · 103 games
EnchantressHara
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed13:30
Evil Rabbit 53%Spiky Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
49% · 135 games48% · 111 games
Dragon KnightManic
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetIrving
55% · 95 games49% · 98 games
PuckGaN-
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroQYQX
45% · 73 games50% · 43 games
Marci生死
Marci
53% · 22 games
IoTK
Io
54% · 29 games
BaneHara
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 58%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3