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ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Excel Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Excel Esports

Batrider
Batrider
Hara · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 5 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Hara · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
天命 · 25 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 674 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
421 picks · 414 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
350 picks · 726 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
328 picks · 628 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 596 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 49%
Hero pool strength63% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:34
Excel Esports 30%Yakult Brothers 70%
The model gave 70% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 56:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaManic
46% · 110 games49% · 106 games
Phantom Assassinflyfly
Phantom Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracButterflyEffect
47% · 57 games54% · 76 games
RazorEmo
Razor
Mars
Mars生死
44% · 122 games57% · 158 games
Bristlebackzeal
Bristleback
Windranger
WindrangerCatYou
49% · 146 games46% · 121 game
RingmasterOli
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilencerRedPanda
49% · 84 games60% · 58 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed53:13
Excel Esports 29%Yakult Brothers 71%
The model gave 71% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 1:03:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
49% · 46 games50% · 67 games
Medusaflyfly
Medusa
Tiny
TinyManic
48% · 216 games49% · 67 games
LeshracEmo
Leshrac
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
48% · 87 games54% · 155 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Silencer
SilencerRedPanda
47% · 73 games56% · 41 game
RikiPyw
Riki
Techies
TechiesCatYou
51% · 16 games52% · 108 games
RingmasterOli
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct14:32
Excel Esports 32%Yakult Brothers 68%
The model gave 68% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenManic
49% · 150 games51% · 65 games
Templar Assassinflyfly
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracButterflyEffect
48% · 82 games53% · 156 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
56% · 132 games52% · 110 games
Monkey KingEmo
Monkey King
Ringmaster
RingmasterCatYou
47% · 110 games56% · 146 games
MuertaPyw
Muerta
Silencer
SilencerRedPanda
46% · 78 games41% · 75 games
Night StalkerOli
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 82%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3