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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 13 games
54%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 11 games
55%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 20 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 13 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
360 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 116 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 502 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 427 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 347 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 338 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
230 picks · 497 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 241 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:33
Execration 42%Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerTino-
45% · 47 games48% · 85 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckBob
54% · 246 games46% · 103 games
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLuciano
50% · 108 gameslittle data
DawnbreakerQ
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressRR
54% · 112 games52% · 325 games
Lionboombell
Lion
Game 2prediction correct13:46
Execration 46%Motivate.Trust Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaBob
54% · 136 games44% · 100 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyTino-
54% · 155 games50% · 97 games
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomLuciano
60% · 82 games45% · 240 games
LionQ
Lion
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRR
46% · 209 games47% · 145 games
Tidehunterboombell
Tidehunter
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 60%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2