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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ERTENKELEMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 6 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rvze · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
Lefitan · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 3 games
100%

ERTENKELEM

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
783 picks · 523 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 402 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 672 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
388 picks · 741 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 807 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
EZ KATKA 54%ERTENKELEM 46%
The model gave 54% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 26:52.
Game 2prediction missed45:19
EZ KATKA 54%ERTENKELEM 46%
The model gave 54% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by ERTENKELEM in 41:47.
Game 3prediction missed35:11
EZ KATKA 54%ERTENKELEM 46%
The model gave 54% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by ERTENKELEM in 34:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 54%
Series resultERTENKELEM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3