Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MCASTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EZ KATKA
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rvze · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Marci
Lefitan · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 3 games
MCAST
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
775 picks · 506 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 394 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 653 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 285 bans
Death Prophet
386 picks · 716 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 790 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:40
EZ KATKA 61%MCAST 39%
The model gave 61% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 32:29.
Game 2prediction correct33:10
EZ KATKA 61%MCAST 39%
The model gave 61% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 16:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 61%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2