?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
31%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
30%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 9 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Muka · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
633 · 7 games
29%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 29 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 28 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 21 game
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 494 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 169 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
290 picks · 226 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
276 picks · 624 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 389 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
249 picks · 725 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
223 picks · 304 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
219 picks · 138 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 34%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:41
Fantastic Five 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArk
58% · 149 games49% · 73 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMalr1ne
50% · 135 games48% · 72 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
40% · 35 games
KunkkaTheChosenOne
Kunkka
52% · 13 games
Spirit BreakerHeaven
Spirit Breaker
44% · 91 game
AbaddonVANSKOR
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed35:15
Fantastic Five 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArk
48% · 116 games52% · 34 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
51% · 111 games47% · 80 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
54% · 29 games
Vengeful SpiritTheChosenOne
Vengeful Spirit
little data
VisageVANSKOR
Visage
50% · 84 games
Monkey KingHeaven
Monkey King
Game 3prediction correct19:27
Fantastic Five 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidArk
48% · 119 games62% · 46 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMalr1ne
42% · 92 games58% · 53 games
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
49% · 31 game
DoomTheChosenOne
Doom
54% · 49 games
Nyx AssassinHeaven
Nyx Assassin
50% · 32 games
AbaddonVANSKOR
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3