Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 16 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
Grimstroke
633 · 9 games
Hoodwink
633 · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 8 games
qwerty44
Hoodwink
Fezor · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Linaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
434 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
341 picks · 133 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 630 bans
Puck
301 picks · 679 bans
Ancient Apparition
292 picks · 461 bans
Mars
286 picks · 514 bans
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 352 bans
Lina
261 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% qwerty44
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:28
Fantastic Five 43%qwerty44 57%
The model gave 57% on qwerty44 — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsAskold
BroodmotherUSHUSHUSH
GyrocopterKami
Phantom LancerKom4rt
TimbersawBlizzy
GrimstrokeFezor
Winter Wyvern633
Nyx AssassinjAMES
Game 2prediction missed38:15
Fantastic Five 43%qwerty44 57%
The model gave 57% on qwerty44 — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenKami
Templar AssassinUSHUSHUSH
PuckAskold
LunaKom4rt
Dragon KnightBlizzy
Ancient ApparitionFezor
Dark WillowjAMES
Winter Wyvern633
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty44 · 63%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2