The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantasy Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Doomoften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Hoodwink
Zxca · 1 game
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Zxca · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
DM · 1 game
Cuyes Esports
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
Tusk
Matthew · 2 games
Clockwerk
Matthew · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Linaoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
444 picks · 704 bans
Crystal Maiden
438 picks · 210 bans
Centaur Warrunner
408 picks · 569 bans
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
366 picks · 638 bans
Rubick
359 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 905 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Fantasy Gaming 31%Cuyes Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightDM
TinyParker
PuckRobo-Z
TimbersawILICH-
Night Stalkerdrakesh1t
Crystal MaidenMjz
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
HoodwinkZxca
Game 2prediction correct
Fantasy Gaming 18%Cuyes Esports 82%
The model gave 82% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 82%
Series resultCuyes Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2