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BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Zore · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Zore · 5 games
20%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 5 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shoe · 4 games
0%

The Cut

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 17 games
18%
Techies
Techiessignature
bgod · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
25%
Marci
Marcioften banned
AfrOmoush · 8 games
25%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
651 picks · 509 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
471 picks · 703 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
423 picks · 603 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
417 picks · 881 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
337 picks · 414 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
288 picks · 478 bans
52%
Zeus
Zeus
288 picks · 385 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
270 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 30%
Hero pool strength54% Felt
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:30
Felt 49%The Cut 51%
The model gave 51% on The Cut — the game was taken by Felt in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidparadise'
54% · 104 games51% · 142 games
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
Bloodseeker
Visage
VisageSuperNova
51% · 90 games49% · 204 games
Storm Spiritred2
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliersolji
53% · 296 games46% · 386 games
MarsLil_Nick
Mars
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChen
49% · 240 games46% · 79 games
Dark Willowbgod
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskThe Warden
52% · 81 game
Game 2prediction missed32:24
Felt 45%The Cut 55%
The model gave 55% on The Cut — the game was taken by Felt in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaparadise'
46% · 63 games51% · 147 games
Invokerred2
Invoker
Lina
Linasolji
55% · 116 games51% · 46 games
Shadow FiendScourge McDuck
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSuperNova
53% · 160 games46% · 104 games
VisageLil_Nick
Visage
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerThe Warden
44% · 98 games51% · 188 games
Monkey Kingbgod
Monkey King
Dazzle
DazzleChen
52% · 48 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 57%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2